Original-Research: MagForce AG - von GBC AG

Einstufung von GBC AG zu MagForce AG

Unternehmen: MagForce AG

Anlass der Studie: Research Note
Empfehlung: BUY
Kursziel: 15.30 Euro
Kursziel auf Sicht von: 31/12/2019
Letzte Ratingänderung:
Analyst: Cosmin Filker, Marcel Goldmann

After the publication of the half-year figures, the forecasts for the
coming financial years remain valid thanks to the continued positive
outlook and the confirmed approval schedule. The basis for this remains the
planned roll-out of NanoTherm technology in Europe, more specifically in
Poland, Italy, Spain and Germany. The mobile solution, which eliminates the
need for permanent and relatively costly installation in the treatment
centres, has now been developed and the technical requirements have been
met. The readiness of the treatment centres to cooperate on the deployment
of MagForce technology should increase significantly, particularly because
of the associated reduction in risk for the user.

Another important aspect of the European roll-outs is the planned
reimbursement of costs by the insurance companies, as the treatment is
currently still financed privately or by individual request to the health
insurance provider. Reimbursement studies are to be carried out in this
regard in the countries targeted, with low costs expected in each case.

The approval process for prostate treatment, which is still expected to be
completed in the second half of 2019, is also proceeding as planned. Once
the pivotal studies at the two treatment centres in Seattle and San Antonio
have begun, the first results could even be published as early as in the
first quarter of 2019. After an evaluation phase, we expect the start of
the commercial treatment towards the end of the coming financial year 2019.
In parallel to this, MagForce AG is expected to include further hospitals
in addition to the two treatment centres that are currently part of the
project, making timely, comprehensive treatment possible. In this regard,
both the production of NanoTherm and the significantly smaller
NanoActivator devices required for prostate treatment are to be promoted.

The conclusion of further cooperation agreements in Europe and the expected
market approval for the treatment of prostate cancer in the USA should lead
to the generation of the first significant revenues in the coming financial
year. The Company should be able to show a rapid increase in the sales
volume in the 2020 financial year. This is based on the inclusion of
revenues in the US over the entire year and an expected rise in patient
requests in Europe.

According to our expectations, break-even on EBITDA level will only be
achieved in financial year 2021. In principle, we expect a relatively high
level of profitability (EBITDA margin: approx. 45%), as high economies of
scale are likely to be achieved given stable conditions. This forms the
basis for our DCF valuation model.

Under the DCF valuation model, we have established a target price of
EUR15.30 (previously: EUR15.80). The drop in the target price reflects the
reduction in the participating interest in the US subsidiary MagForce USA
to 67.9% (previously: 76.9%). This dilutive effect was caused by the
capital increase of the subsidiary carried out in August 2018. Based on the
current share price of EUR 6.09, we are maintaining our BUY rating.

Die vollständige Analyse können Sie hier downloaden:

Kontakt für Rückfragen
Jörg Grunwald
Halderstraße 27
86150 Augsburg
0821 / 241133 0
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Date (time) of completion: 06/11/18 (5:25 pm)
Date (time) of first distribution: 07/11/18 (10:00 am)

-------------------übermittelt durch die EQS Group AG.-------------------

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